The Satoshi Curve

Bitcoin’s price history often looks chaotic: sharp rallies, brutal crashes, long periods of boredom, and sudden spikes. But when we zoom out to the long-term chart, a surprisingly consistent rhythm emerges, one that has held since Bitcoin’s creation. The long-term RSI on the weekly time frame forms a cyclical pattern remarkably similar to a sine wave, a classic tool used to identify market cycles across equities, commodities, currencies, which can also be applied to cryptocurrencies.

This is what we call “The Satoshi Curve” — a long-term cyclical model represented by a sine wave that visualizes Bitcoin’s recurring phases of expansion and contraction by mapping momentum (RSI) against time. The lower band of the curve highlights historical accumulation zones, while the upper band marks periods of euphoria and increased risk. It does not predict a specific price. Instead, it visualizes a recurring pattern driven by human behavior, global monetary policies, and Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity.

But why does Bitcoin move in cycles?

1. Bitcoin Is Literally Built to Be Cyclical

Bitcoin is not an ordinary asset. Every four years something called the halving occurs. This is when the number of new bitcoins created each day is cut in half. This is written into Bitcoin’s code and cannot be changed. After the halving, the effects of reduced supply begin to be felt, and price tends to rally. That rally attracts attention, media, and retail participation. Sentiment shifts from fear to excitement to euphoria — and then, inevitably, to exhaustion. That same pattern has happened again and again since Bitcoin was created, and can be represented and visualized by a sine wave.

2. Liquidity Expands and Contracts in Rhythms Too

Bitcoin is heavily influenced by global liquidity. When central banks lower interest rates or implement quantitative easing, investors become more speculative and capital flows into riskier assets. This is called a liquidity expansion, and Bitcoin usually performs well during these times. When central banks raise rates and pull money out of the system, we see a liquidity contraction. In those periods, investors become more careful, and risky assets like Bitcoin often fall in price. These monetary cycles tend to line up with Bitcoin’s own four-year halving pattern, reinforcing the overall cyclical behavior.

3. Human Psychology Makes the Curve Smooth

Human psychology also plays a big role in this cyclical model. Investors go through the same emotions in every cycle: hope, optimism, belief, euphoria, anxiety, denial, fear, and depression — before hope begins again. This is why a momentum and sentiment indicator such as the RSI align so well with the sine wave model.  When RSI reaches extreme lows, fear dominates the narrative, yet historically these moments have offered the best long-term buying opportunities, as smart money buys when there is fear in the market.

What Comes Next?

The sine wave represents the cycles: expansion and contraction, fear and greed, accumulation and distribution. The goal is not to guess the exact top or bottom. Instead, it is to recognize zones of opportunity and risk. When the wave approaches the bottom, fear is high and prices are often cheap compared to the long-term trend. These are accumulation zones. When the wave is near the top, excitement is everywhere and risk is high. These are distribution zones. Understanding this helps investors stay calm, stop chasing hype, and start thinking in the bigger picture.

This model works because it is based on three powerful and repeating forces: Bitcoin’s halving cycle, global monetary policies, and predictable human psychology. Together, they create a long-term pulse that resembles a near-perfect sine wave aligned with Bitcoin’s historical momentum.

Bitcoin has been correcting since July 2025, now trading around $90,000 after a -36% drop from its all-time high of approximately $125,000. The cycle model accurately signaled this downturn, and we are now approaching another potential bottom in the sine wave cycle around December 2025. The question remains: will the model correctly signal another major Bitcoin bottom around December 2025 – January 2026, or will this cycle break from the historical pattern?